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Im going to write in defence of Capitals RW Alex Ovechkin, if only because there have been some recent attacks and, while I can certainly live with them being directed at Ovechkin, the analytical process ought to be better, particularly if its going to be a hit piece on the leagues leading goal-scorer. Yes, Im writing to defend a player that is on pace for a 59-goal season, when the second-best goal-scorer in the NHL this season, Torontos Phil Kessel, is on pace for 43. Naturally, I didnt think that Ovechkin would be a player that needed much defending, but hes taken some hits lately. Im going to largely ignore his contributions on the power play because its not in any dispute that Ovechkin is great with the man advantage and can make a difference even when he doesnt score. On one side of the discussion, we have the Toronto Star, with their Department of Hockey Analytics, and while there are plenty of flaws in Ovechkins game, they somehow determined that his goals-for/against percentage was the way to illustrate the problem. Never mind that goals for/against percentage is essentially measuring plus-minus. Ill get to that in a moment but, first, also peruse the Hockey News piece by Ken Campbell who, after Ovechkin was minus-5 against Columbus, decided that Ovechkin has to decide what kind of player he is. After all, Ovechkin was minus-17 on the season after that game. Whats odd about using plus-minus to denigrate Ovechkins contributions is that anyone doing serious analytical work in hockey has been against using plus-minus because it involves so many factors beyond an individual players control (not least of which are the contributions of nine other skaters and two goaltenders when the game is 5-on-5) and, generally, involves small samples because goals are relatively rare events. Its funny to find myself in this position, because I can be a bit of an apologist for plus-minus. You spend enough time around the game and that thinking can be pretty common, and when the sample is large enough, you can get a pretty decent list of players at both ends of the spectrum. (For example, heres the list of players with the best cumulative plus-minus since 2000, and here are the worst.) But, Ive at least learned that there are many other factors that go into whether a player is a plus or minus player, and they must be considered if youre going to attempt to pass judgment on a single season or, especially, a portion of a season. So, lets take a look at some factors that are at play to make Alex Ovechkin a minus-17. First off, the shooting percentage of others on the ice with Ovechkin at 5-on-5 is ridiculously low. His 6.3% is only ahead of fourth-liners Aaron Volpatti and Jay Beagle among Capitals forwards. The suggestion could be made -- and of course it has been -- that Ovechkin isnt making those around him better, but here are the 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages when Ovechkin has been on the ice for the past five seasons: 10.36%, 8.62%, 8.05%, 11.76%, 9.09%. Youre really going to have to dig for reasons, other than poor luck and ineffective shooters, to explain even-strength shooting effectiveness declining by 40% over last season, especially when Ovechkin himself is shooting 10.6% (18 goals, 170 shots) at 5-on-5. Taking away Ovechkins 18 goals on 170 shots, leaves the other Capitals to score eight goals on 242 shots (3.3%) with Ovechkin on the ice. Marcus Johansson, his most common left winger, has one goal on 51 shots. This undeniably effects plus-minus, right? Of course it does. Give Ovechkin an average on-ice shooting percentage (say, 8%) and that is a difference of about seven goals. At the other end of the rink, Ovechkin is getting burned with a .909 save percentage at 5-on-5. Naturally, the argument will be that Ovechkins defensive play is what leads to that low percentage. Keep in mind, that percentage is well below career norms for him (.922 over the past five seasons, including this one) and ranks near the bottom on the Capitals roster. Use that typical save percentage, on 439 shots against, and that becomes a difference of 5-6 goals. So, why not take a look at where the shots are coming from with Ovechkin on the ice? According to Some Kind of Ninjas Shot Tracker, shots against the Capitals with Ovechkin on the ice at even strength, come from an average distance of 34.5 feet. In the previous five seasons, it has been 34.2, 36.6, 35.8, 34.6 and 35.9 feet on average. There can be an argument made, based on those average shot distances, that Ovechkins most effective defensive performances were in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 (the Dale Hunter season), but there really isnt a huge difference; goaltenders arent suddenly flummoxed by 34-foot shots when 36-footers are easy pickings. On top of that, best of luck trying to identify those particular seasons as anything close to Ovechkins best. Why? Because he scored 70 goals and 150 points in 157 games over those two seasons, producing the two lowest point scoring rates of his career. Yes, even lower than this season, when virtually no one else puts the puck in the net with him on the ice. Of course Ovechkin is not a defensive whiz, but that shouldnt stand as an indictment any more than it has for elite offensive players throughout the history of the game. Seriously, take a look at the Top 10 goal-scorers in the league, none of whom put the puck in the net like Ovechkin, and identify the ones that are notably strong backcheckers. Some are: Joe Pavelski, Alexander Steen, Patrick Sharp, but theres no reason to believe that right wingers Kessel or Corey Perry or Patrick Kane are doing brilliant work in the defensive end. Heres the thing: theyre all great players! Part of the trouble for Ovechkin is that the Capitals havent been able to win in the postseason, so he gets painted with the brush of failure for a whole host of team shortcomings. Thats what comes with being a superstar. This Capitals team is flawed. They rank in the bottom third of the league in Fenwick Close (measuring shot attempts, not including blocks, at even strength, with the score close), which is a good indication of team puck possession, yet Ovechkin has relatively solid possession numbers. If you want to break down a players overall contribution, and feel that you must use one statistic in order to do so (better yet, dont), then at least reduce the impact of others on the ice and look at the possession stats, because it wont matter that linemates arent finishing or that, for whatever reason, goaltenders arent stopping the puck. Shooting and save percentages fluctuate and while they affect perception -- just ask Tyler Bozak -- they dont get to the bottom of a players on-ice contribution, and so it is with Ovechkin this year, who is having a fine season, no matter what his plus-minus says. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. http://www.footballbrownsnflstore.com/Youth-Alex-M...te-Jers ey/ . Wall made the comment in a speech to a Regina business crowd that included Lesnar. The U.S. wrestler and retired mixed martial artist says he was visiting his brothers farm in Saskatchewan and decided he wanted to hear what the premier had to say. http://www.footballbrownsnflstore.com/Youth-Duke-J...te-Jers ey/ ., for the next three years with the signings on Monday of Daryl Townsend and Michael Carter. http://www.footballbrownsnflstore.com/Youth-Karlos...te-Jers ey/ . The phone hearing is scheduled for 4:30pm et/1:30pm pt. Winchester, who was not penalized for the hit, appeared to make contact with Kellys head early in the first period of Thursdays game in Boston. http://www.footballbrownsnflstore.com/Youth-Joel-B...te-Jers ey/ .C. -- After a listless first half, the Washington Wizards used a big third quarter run to beat the Charlotte Bobcats Bradley Beal scored 21 points and the Wizards used a 17-0 run in the third quarter to take control of what had been a close game and beat the Bobcats 97-83 on Tuesday night. http://www.footballbrownsnflstore.com/Youth-Tashau...te-Jers ey/ . -- In one brief spurt, Brazil turned a close game into a rout and proved again it will be a strong World Cup favourite. EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. -- The quarterback carousel hasnt stopped turning for the Vikings and it seems to spin more wildly out of control each week. After an awful debut on Monday night, Josh Freeman reported to team headquarters this week with concussion-like symptoms. The short week will make it difficult for him to gain clearance to play Sunday night against Green Bay. Step right up, Christian Ponder. Its your turn to hop on for another ride when the Vikings (1-5) host the Packers (4-2). "Its an opportunity to get back in the saddle and be more vocal and take ahold of this position," Ponder said on Wednesday after practice, "because I dont want to give it back." Ponder started the first three games of the season, was injured and then lost his job to backup Matt Cassel. Cassel played well in a victory over Pittsburgh and poorly in a loss to Carolina two weeks ago, prompting coach Leslie Frazier to turn to the newly signed Freeman against the New York Giants on Monday. Freeman went 20 for 53 for 190 yards and one interception in the loss to the Giants, but coach Leslie Frazier said Tuesday that he would stick with Freeman going forward as the starter. Then Freeman was diagnosed with the concussion symptoms, thrusting Ponder back into the middle of the action. For a team that is looking to stabilize itself during a massively disappointing first six weeks, the ins and outs at quarterback arent helping. "At the quarterback position, you want to know who is going to be lining up week-in and week-out," Frazier said. "But thats the circumstance where we are and Christian will do a good job for us on Sunday night." When the season started, it was Ponder who was cast as the franchise quarterback. He had been inconsistent in his first two seasons in the league after being taken 12th overall in 2011. But GM Rick Spielman and Frazier were confident that he would follow the path of Eli Manning and have a breakout season in Year 3. Then they watched Ponder complete just 59 per cennt of his passes and throw five interceptions to just two touchdown passes in three straight losses to open the season and made the decision that his time as the teams starting quarterback had come to an end.dddddddddddd Ponder was clearly disappointed with the decision, and he didnt get a lot of help from a lacklustre offensive line in the process, but he bit his tongue and moved forward as Freeman was brought in to take over. "Hes a competitor and he wants to be out there for sure. But hes handled it well," Frazier said. "Our conversations have been positive. We even talked last week about the possibility of something like this happening, just being ready. When youre in a backup role it takes one play for you to have to be the starter so youve got to make sure your mind is right and youre doing what youve got to do to prepare to go out and play and play well." Veteran receiver Greg Jennings, who will be facing his former team for the first time this week, said he hopes Ponder has learned from his time on the sideline. "Any time you have to take a backseat, any time you have to sit down for a minute, it gives you time to reflect and I think hes done that," Jennings said. "Hes seen how important it is to play at a high level at that position. But even more importantly, how important that position is to the overall success of the team and what it takes to actually hold that position. "Its not just about your quarterback play, its about how you lead off the field as well and on the field, how you command the huddle, how you demand things of your teammates. I think hes had the opportunity to see that." Ponder said he was surprised by the "short leash" he had to start the season, and he thinks he was putting too much pressure on himself. Life as a backup has given him a new perspective. "Now is the opportunity to take that deep breath and go out and have fun again," Ponder said. "I already got benched, so it cant get worse than that." Cheap China Jerseys Cheap NFL Jerseys Cheap NFL Jerseys China Cheap Jerseys From China China NFL Jerseys Cheap Jerseys Cheap Jerseys China ' ' '
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